Isaac Clemons, Research Associate, African Political Economy Policy Lab
Iclemons@africacfsp.org

Kenya has always looked towards technology as a means to develop. In the past, Kenya has embraced the idea of technology hubs. Today, it is embracing 5G. Kenya quickly adopted 5G technology when it became available, a decision that mirrors Kenya’s traditional affinity for technological innovations. This piece will address the following question: How will Kenya’s technology landscape change as these two forces combine?

When Kenya became the second African country to adopt 5G technology for its communications, Kenya believed that the technology could increase its digital presence. With the assistance of the Chinese technology giant Huawei, the East African country followed South Africa in deploying 5G technology through its telecom giant Safaricom. Since then, 16 other countries – including Nigeria, the continent’s most populous country – have acquired or planned to acquire the revolutionary technology. While the motivations behind these acquisitions vary by country, the common theme is a desire to leapfrog 4G and wired internet in favor of the faster 5G.

A large-scale adoption of 5G could impact all sectors of African digital technology. Some purported benefits include more environmentally friendly and inclusive economic growth and increased efficiency in the health care systems. However, the widespread implementation of 5G is not certain. The vast majority of personal devices across the continent are 3G, which is unlikely to change anytime soon. Ericsson, a Swedish telecommunications company, has reported only 7% of the population will have adopted 5G personal devices in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2026. Notably, this is the lowest projected adoption rate of any region globally.

Additionally, the price of 5G devices makes the cost of entry prohibitive for many individual consumers and communities. The cheapest options cost $650, a far cry from the $10 phones that support 3G. A 5G network capable of supporting 50,000 subscribers can cost anywhere between $250,000 to $1.2 million, rendering it unfeasible for many communities. Nonetheless, while 5G seems too expensive for the vast majority of the continent, there are places that could benefit dramatically from 5G.

The more tech-forward African economies have long experimented with the idea of tech hubs – meaning, industrial centers that provide the resources and accommodations for local startups and international tech companies to establish offices. The goal is to leverage foreign direct investment from international companies to support local startups and individuals. Ideally, this has the potential to spur domestic technological literacy and growth. While many tech cities have failed due to corruption or budget constraints, many have also succeeded and currently form the backbone of Africa’s tech ecosystem.

When these tech cities work, they typically work as intended with large amounts of FDI flowing in from abroad that stimulates the domestic tech market. Major international companies like Facebook, Google, Amazon, Microsoft and IBM are the largest sponsors of tech hubs. These centers of African innovation have received millions of dollars from abroad. These hubs are concentrated in certain economies that have bought into the tech hub model more so than others. Four countries house over a third of all the tech hubs in Africa. Three of them have already experimented with 5G.

This intersection between 5G and tech hubs may have an incredible impact on Africa’s digital economy. Alternatively, 5G could join the list of technological promises that fail to deliver real change. Regardless, as 5G spreads, the interaction between these tech–forward ideas will surely become a reality. This interaction can shape the landscape of Africa’s digital economy for decades.