Africa’s Emerging Space and Satellite Programs Could be Key for Security and Defense – But May Pose Larger Strategic Risks

Sabrine Dao, Research Analyst, Security & Intelligence Policy Lab
sdao@africacfsp.org

A renewed interest in space is felt in Africa, with several African countries deploying satellites since the continent’s first in 1998. Since then, African countries have used satellites for counterinsurgency or peacekeeping operations. This could benefit African countries dealing with insurgencies, but challenges for African space programs remain. Furthermore, many governments are looking to Russia and China for support, posing a geopolitical risk. This paper recommends that increased inter-African coordination in satellite-based defense applications should be prioritized, and that African governments should invest in space science education to improve Africa’s potential to develop its space industry.

Introduction

Worldwide, the so-called ‘space race’ is experiencing a revival. Not only are state agencies such as NASA in the United States launching satellites like CAPSTONE,¹ but private-sector space exploration has also taken off.² In an increasingly interconnected world, the use of satellites is growing, with year-over-year double-digit percentage growth in the number of satellites entering Earth’s atmosphere in 2021.³ While some space agencies and private companies have goals of putting people into space and on other planets, the growth in the number of satellite may prove to be more consequential for terrestrial society. While satellites have many non-military uses such as business intelligence, monitoring climate change, or connecting remote areas, governments across the world have long used satellites for military and defense purposes.⁴

In Africa, this trend is not as developed as elsewhere in the world but is likewise growing. In April 1998, the first Egyptian-owned communications satellite, Nilestat 101, launched into orbit from French Guyana.⁵ Since then, more than 40 African satellites have been launched, including 20 in the last five years.⁶ As many as 19 countries in Africa have space agencies, with as much as $3 billion being invested in space exploitation in Africa since the launch of Nilestat 101.⁷ Furthermore, the African Union has recognized the need for coordinated efforts on space exploitation, and much like the EU, established the African Space Agency in 2018⁸ and equipped it with a strategy in 2019.⁹

Previously, there had been relatively minimal investment in the development of military satellites. However, with countries across the continent struggling to contain insurgencies, exploring the use of space to achieve defense aims is only natural. This paper will therefore examine the state of space exploitation in Africa from a security standpoint and will assess the opportunities, risks, and consequences that this African space race poses.

Assessing the State of Military Satellites in Africa

The larger economies of Africa have been leaders in African space exploitation since the 1990s. Both South Africa¹⁰ and Nigeria¹¹ have invested hundreds of millions of dollars into space programs and have launched several satellites each. But Nigeria and South Africa are just two of 11 countries that have so far achieved this milestone of launching a satellite into orbit – the others being Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Morocco, Rwanda, and Sudan.¹² From a security point of view, at least eight ground facilities and six satellites across five African countries have been designed and developed for military-security purposes, representing around 20% of all investment in African space programs, with the remainder being spent on civil ventures.¹³

It is collaboration with countries elsewhere in the world that has given some countries with less-developed space programs the ability to launch their own satellites; Rwanda worked with the Japanese space agency to launch a satellite sometime in 2019¹⁴, and Ethiopia joined the ranks of space-faring African nations by collaborating with China.¹⁵ So far, few countries in Africa have said they may be ready to launch their own satellites in the near future. One example is South Africa.¹⁶ Currently, however, the capacity of countries in Africa to collaborate with each other to reach space independently is low. The African Union’s Space Strategy, albeit in its early stages of development, does not set out clear actions that will give the African space industry the support it needs to thrive.¹⁷ Other trans-national space agencies, such as the European Space Agency, show what is possible with long-term investment and a clear structure, having received a five-year budget of $15.8 billion in 2019 that will go towards projects that include landing people on the moon once again.¹⁸ It is difficult to compare the state of these two agencies due to their differences in maturity. Therefore, it is only natural for African countries to collaborate more often with non-African governments in the space race.

The Proliferation of Satellites as a Tool in Counterinsurgency and Peacekeeping

Military applications for satellites generally relate to reconnaissance, navigation, or communications, and can present a tactical advantage in warfare. Realistically, the countries that are the best poised to invest in space technology for defense purposes are those with the most developed space programs that invested early in the Cold War-era space race – namely, South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, and Libya.¹⁹ However, the recently increasing interest in space projects since 2010 has drawn more countries into the space race, such as Morocco and Nigeria.²⁰ A turning point for military applications of satellites and other space-focused technology in Africa was in 2014, when the Condor-E2 satellite was launched into orbit by Russia. This satellite’s stated purpose was to monitor maritime crimes such as piracy, but it was also possible to use the satellite for military operations. This was useful for countries such as South Africa with large deployments of its military in peacekeeping missions around Africa.²¹

This observational capacity is crucial when the largest security threat in many African countries is currently insurgencies in remote areas. In some countries, governments are already looking at using satellites to their advantage. In Nigeria, satellites are now being considered for counter-insurgency operations, with the military in 2021 requesting extensive funding to acquire satellites capable of observing the north of the country to gather information on Boko Haram insurgents.²² For other countries faced with insurgencies, such as those in the Sahel, the use of satellites could be pivotal in combatting insurgencies. In Mali, satellites have already been used in peacekeeping efforts; in 2020, Luxembourg provided satellite capacity to the UN as part of peacekeeping efforts in the country, acting as a communication link from Bamako to towns such as Timbuktu, Gao and Kidal.²³ However, it is important to note that the space programs and capabilities of Mali and its Sahel neighbors are not as advanced as those of Nigeria or South Africa, and the capacity for trans-national cooperation is low. For countries with smaller space programs to benefit from the military advantages provided by satellites, they may have to work with non-African actors such as the European Union, Russia, China, or the United States.

Outsourcing the Space Race and Internal Conflicts

The West, and particularly the United States, may be concerned by the fact that Russia and China appear to be the major collaborators with African space programs. Aside from the above-mentioned launch of Ethiopia’s satellite, Angola worked with Russia to launch its first satellite – this is compared to the United States, which has helped to launch less than 18% of Africa’s satellites.²⁴ This could give Russia and China geopolitical advantages, further contributing to the rapprochement of some African nations to these two countries and divisions with the West that has been observed in the past few years.

The European Commission has invested more than $56 million in satellite navigation activities in Africa, with several million more in earth observation technologies from European companies.²⁵ Furthermore, the European Union and African governments have made progress in developing radio astronomy capabilities in the framework of the EU-Africa High-Level Policy Dialogue (HLPD) on science, technology, and innovation (STI) to achieve the goals set out in the EU’s Joint Africa-EU Strategy, adopted in 2007.²⁶ However, the limited involvement of the EU in satellite communication could give countries such as China the upper hand in becoming the leading provider of these services to African countries, further building reliance on China for some African nations.

The proliferation of satellite technology may also give rise to tensions between space-faring states. In 2007, Egypt launched the Egyptstat 1, a satellite capable of capturing images and monitoring the countries surroundings from orbit.²⁷ This was branded a ‘spy satellite’ by the Israeli government. As more African nations gain space-faring abilities, more will likely wish to launch their own observation satellites. This may lead to suspicion from neighboring countries. Further, this trend does not only affect traditionally antagonistic countries such as Egypt and Israel. When Morocco launched its first observation satellite in 2017, Algeria expressed concern over its use in the region.²⁸ For the continent as a whole, an increase in these sorts of conflicts may be unwelcome at a time when the African Union is attempting to bring member states together.

Investing in Education as the First Step to a Successful Space Program

For African nations, investing in space programs for defense goes beyond buying material to develop satellites or telescopes. Equally important is investing in the human capital to ensure that African countries can independently pursue their space exploitation agendas. Currently, one of the larger problems facing many African countries is lacking the skilled workforce in science and technology due to education priorities that focus on passing examinations rather than filling skills gaps.²⁹ While not every country fits into this general trend, it does leave African space programs with little home-grown expertise, and this may push many space programs in Africa to continue their collaboration with non-African governments to further their agenda.³⁰

The challenge to build capacity here is therefore an educational one and goes beyond investing in space programs. The African Union has recognized this need, calling for “significant human capital development” to fulfil Africa’s goals of developing a formidable space program. Some multinational efforts are underway; the Cape Peninsula University of Technology in South Africa hosts the Pan-African University’s Institute for Space Sciences, which will work with six other South African universities to develop space-specific scientific knowledge.³¹ But young leaders in the space industry such as Nelly-Helen Ebruka believe that space science education must start earlier, and that African governments must further invest in education at a primary level to get young Africans interested in space science.³² However, economic conditions across the continent could also hold up this process. According to a 2019 survey, most young people across 15 African countries are considering emigrating to find a better life.³³ Therefore, as is the case with many development challenges in Africa today, governments should make improving the economic situation in their countries a priority to create a good basis for developing education in space science and developing space programs thereafter. With the effect of the pandemic on economic growth still being felt and uncertainty over the war in Ukraine potentially affecting this post-pandemic recovery, this may be easier said than done.³⁴

Conclusion and Recommendations

Africa is not excluded from the recent interest and investment in space exploitation that is happening across the globe, and many countries in Africa have already made considerable progress. From a military perspective, many African countries believe having a technological advantage such as satellites could be a game-changer in countering their security issues, such as terrorism and piracy, however, it is not the only factor.

But this does not mean the African route to space will be without challenges. From a strategic autonomy standpoint, many African space programs continue to rely considerably on foreign support to achieve their aims. From a Western standpoint, although it seems that the West is losing ground to China and Russia, this presents an opportunity to collaborate with the fledgling African space industry. For African countries wishing to develop their space programs, the challenge remains to ensure adequate education and opportunities to ensure that strategic autonomy in the space industry is possible in the long-term. Private-sector investment is crucial to achieve this strategic autonomy, and while many African countries have experienced consistent economic growth in the past few years, an economic slowdown brought about by globally rising interest rates and Russia’s assault on Ukraine could hamper efforts to invest in the African space industry.

Therefore, what can be done to ensure more African countries benefit from the proliferation of military and non-military satellites?

Increased support from the African Union for space programs: While the budget and remit of the African Union is limited, the bloc has the power to coordinate efforts and share knowledge between governments in Africa, enabling countries with more developed space programs to assist countries where little progress has been made.
Further pan-African cooperation: African nations, particularly those with operational military-focused satellites, should be open to cooperating with smaller nations in their use (e.g., in peacekeeping or counter-insurgency missions).
Continued support from Western nations, particularly in satellite communication: The West, and particularly the EU, should reemphasize and reinforce its cooperation with African governments on space programs, and should focus more on satellite communication alongside Earth observation to ensure that actors such as Russia and China do not dominate this space.
Investment in space science education: African governments should realize that future space programs depend on human capital and should invest in making applicable education in science and technology useful for young Africans. If this is successful – and opportunities in the sector are present – it will also help combat “brain drain.”

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