Jennifer Easton, Research Fellow, Youth Gender & Vulnerability Policy Lab
ejennifer@africacfsp.org

COVID-19 presents a substantial threat to Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy. Heavily reliant on an unstable resource market for its revenue, the Nigerian government faces growing unrest and fiscal difficulty as unemployment rates surge amongst its predominantly youthful population. COVID-19 may mark a crossroads in Nigeria, wherein redirection from the legacies of oil and the colonial era can allow the state to realise the potential of its population, the majority of whom are under 25.

An Unstable Pillar

As of October, COVID-19 has not hit Nigeria’s health sector as hard as some had feared. Success is credited to the country’s youthful population and the government’s quick response, which was informed by its experience during the Ebola crisis. Yet the economic effects of a nosediving global economy are palpable in a country still reeling from the impact of the 2016 Oil Shocks. Actors operating in Nigeria know that markets are habitually unstable, which puts the country in a vulnerable position economically.

Nigeria’s formal economy depends upon oil exports, which account for 81.1% of foreign exports, but this accounts for little in terms of tax revenue. In an attempt to increase government revenues, President Buhari pledged in 2019 that levying taxes on the operations of five major multinationals on Nigerian land would trigger a tangible boost to the economy.

In 2020, COVID-19 and a Saudi-Russian price war triggered a new oil crisis, which threatens to worsen Nigeria’s debt service to revenue ratio and further depreciate the naira. The implications of this for Nigeria’s predominantly youthful population are dire and may act as an impetus to diversify and democratize its economy. The growth of the tech sector has shown considerable promise.

A Time of Opportunity?

As part of the drive to diversify its economy, the Nigerian Government has embraced the tech industry, a sector that not only holds the potential to help fight the pandemic but also to economically empower Nigeria’s youthful population.

Tech’s capacity to connect societies has been hailed as contributing significantly to the control and containment of the 2014 Ebola outbreak; where innovative tech approaches saw platforms developed for early warning, contact mapping, and public guidance. In Nigeria’s COVID-19 outbreak, tech is underscoring testing efforts, shifts to online healthcare & advice, and even the use of drones to deliver supplies to both urban populations and remote regions.

The decisions of organizations like GIZ, CCHub, Ventures Platform, and the African CDC to fund and pursue tech innovations in response to COVID-19 build upon gains made in the sector during the 2014 Ebola outbreak and encourage further development for the industry’s start-ups. As the health sector is increasingly strained, telemedicine is likely to prove valuable in areas with lower doctor to patient ratios thus superseding elements of weak health infrastructure. Information and communication technology continue to provide a lifeline and economic opportunity in other protracted crises for Lagos residents deprived of their livelihood under the COVID-19 lockdown.

It has proven to be a sector that helps other sectors grow and develop where dynamically applied resulting in vital and swift effects. Start-ups, recognising the threat to their own and others’ livelihoods in lockdown, set about facilitating urgent cash donations to those in need. In agriculture, the “main source of livelihood for most Nigerians”, AgriTech connects experts, provides data analytics, and facilitates knowledge sharing for greater efficiency and at lower costs – it’s work has also enabled a shift towards the groceries-to-home distribution sector in light of lockdowns in cities. Similarly, Fintech continues to increase access to banking and financial services to rural communities, expanding consumer bases – primarily amongst under 35-year-olds.

Fostering Innovation for Success

Stalwart Afro-Optimism amongst Nigerian youth has been recognised by state readiness to cooperate in creating stronger regional trading ties. The potential for job creation from small/medium enterprises and entrepreneurship “presents a path toward economic independence for young men and women in Africa, particularly when formal employment opportunities are scarce, and the poverty rate among working youth is at nearly 70 percent”.

Tech holds the exciting ability to be almost infinitely expansive – a recognised potential already bringing in increasing levels of venture capital to Lagos. It has proven advantageous and resilient in assisting in a wide range of key industries and raising the possibility of new ones. This, at a time when Nigeria’s youthful population is exploding, is crucial in addressing rising unemployment.

Key aspects in realising the potential of Nigerian youth in tech could include endeavours to tackle electricity shortages, women’s and girl’s engagement in tech and ICT, accessibility to equipment and venture capital, and engagement of financial institutions. Alongside continued support through government investment, these efforts can build capacity by building confidence in both domestic and international investors – a likely boon across sectors.

At this time, the Nigerian government can build upon the move from reliance on oil. Tech has demonstrated itself to be a more than viable competitor for attention – as an industry capable of both scaffolding and developing vulnerable services, businesses, and people during a major, international crisis. The challenges posed in recent months have unexpectedly provided an impetus to pursue a range of opportunities and underlined the creative innovation and broader potential of the Nigerian people. The progress made and relative success in repressing the outbreak thus far speaks to the country’s readiness to further explore its emerging identity as the continent’s unofficial tech capital.