Dr. John Campbell
Ambassador Campbell began his talk by analyzing the current direction of political stability and security in Africa. Key questions— Is the trajectory trending towards democracy, the rule of law, and an independent judiciary? Is there real and meaningful security? He defined security in this context to mean more than simply the absence of war—security from crime, foods security, and the opportunity to pursue one’s dreams and to develop a sense of well-being. He maintained the view that trends in political stability and security trends in Africa are mixed, with a few countries, including South Africa, Botswana, Senegal, and Ethiopia, trending positively. Others, like Somalia, Burkina Faso, and the eastern region of the Democratic Republic of Congo going the other direction, with some countries, like Nigeria and Kenya, lingering in-between.
Positive trends in political stability
Campbell began by discussing the South African case, where the quality of elections is comparable to Western countries such as Japan or the United States. He also provided other examples of positive trajectories in Africa, including Botswana, Senegal, and Ethiopia. Botswana, in many respects, represents a model for democracy and human rights. Ethiopia is a prime example of a country that corrected its course from a path to tyranny to a leadership change, resulting in political stability.
Negative trends in political stability
Despite these success stories, political stability, and security in Africa continues to be a challenge for many states. On the gloomy side, the Ambassador mentioned Somalia, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Burkina Faso. Burkina Faso represents an interesting case because until recently, the country was on a positive trajectory. However, external forces resulted in increased insecurity in the country. For instance, there is a presence of Jihadist groups exploiting internal cleavages within the country to advance their goals.
Stability trends in between
With a population projection of about 398 million by 2050, Nigeria is on track to displace the United States as the third largest population. However, Nigeria has surpassed India in the number of impoverished persons in the world in absolute numbers. Also, Nigeria organizes elections quite regularly, but most of them are rigged. The country also faces worsening security threats—Boko Haram in the North East, and conflicts between herders & farmers, for instance. However, in spite of these setbacks, Ambassador Campbell argues that Nigeria has excellent potential for progress given its efforts towards democracy.
Ultimately, the Ambassador concludes that some of Africa is rising and some of it isn’t. One must be careful about sweeping generalizations. And while a clear distinction must be made between one country and another, it is equally important to make distinctions within a country. For example, some areas in Nigeria are booming with construction, while others are barely surviving. Certainly, some countries seem to be making steady progress and demonstrate exemplary lessons for the world, while in other countries the issues and challenges seem to be so great that it would be nearly impossible to make progress without international support. For instance, managing almost 2.5 million internally displaced people in Nigeria would require an international response. However, there is hope for Africa to rise, and that hope lies in the character of its leaders. With effective leadership, there is the potential for that Africa could rise even more.
The Current State of Security & Stability in Africa
VIDEO | EXPERT COMMENTARY
Dr. John Campbell
Ambassador Campbell began his talk by analyzing the current direction of political stability and security in Africa. Key questions— Is the trajectory trending towards democracy, the rule of law, and an independent judiciary? Is there real and meaningful security? He defined security in this context to mean more than simply the absence of war—security from crime, foods security, and the opportunity to pursue one’s dreams and to develop a sense of well-being. He maintained the view that trends in political stability and security trends in Africa are mixed, with a few countries, including South Africa, Botswana, Senegal, and Ethiopia, trending positively. Others, like Somalia, Burkina Faso, and the eastern region of the Democratic Republic of Congo going the other direction, with some countries, like Nigeria and Kenya, lingering in-between.
Positive trends in political stability
Campbell began by discussing the South African case, where the quality of elections is comparable to Western countries such as Japan or the United States. He also provided other examples of positive trajectories in Africa, including Botswana, Senegal, and Ethiopia. Botswana, in many respects, represents a model for democracy and human rights. Ethiopia is a prime example of a country that corrected its course from a path to tyranny to a leadership change, resulting in political stability.
Negative trends in political stability
Despite these success stories, political stability, and security in Africa continues to be a challenge for many states. On the gloomy side, the Ambassador mentioned Somalia, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Burkina Faso. Burkina Faso represents an interesting case because until recently, the country was on a positive trajectory. However, external forces resulted in increased insecurity in the country. For instance, there is a presence of Jihadist groups exploiting internal cleavages within the country to advance their goals.
Stability trends in between
With a population projection of about 398 million by 2050, Nigeria is on track to displace the United States as the third largest population. However, Nigeria has surpassed India in the number of impoverished persons in the world in absolute numbers. Also, Nigeria organizes elections quite regularly, but most of them are rigged. The country also faces worsening security threats—Boko Haram in the North East, and conflicts between herders & farmers, for instance. However, in spite of these setbacks, Ambassador Campbell argues that Nigeria has excellent potential for progress given its efforts towards democracy.
Ultimately, the Ambassador concludes that some of Africa is rising and some of it isn’t. One must be careful about sweeping generalizations. And while a clear distinction must be made between one country and another, it is equally important to make distinctions within a country. For example, some areas in Nigeria are booming with construction, while others are barely surviving. Certainly, some countries seem to be making steady progress and demonstrate exemplary lessons for the world, while in other countries the issues and challenges seem to be so great that it would be nearly impossible to make progress without international support. For instance, managing almost 2.5 million internally displaced people in Nigeria would require an international response. However, there is hope for Africa to rise, and that hope lies in the character of its leaders. With effective leadership, there is the potential for that Africa could rise even more.
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