PUBLICATIONS

Africa is no stranger to combatting public health crises, and the renewed growth seen in many nations, coupled with the optimism of a new generation of younger and more reform-minded African leaders, means that there is a real opportunity to emerge stronger from the COVID-19 pandemic. To do so, however, it is important that African nations preserve their autonomy, and maintain a focus on the protection of self-determination, democratic representation, and their own national interests above those of external powers that seek to use COVID-19 aid as a lever of power.

In response to a sharp escalation of intercommunal violence, South Sudan launched a civilian disarmament campaign in July 2020 to counter the proliferation of small arms. Rather than quelling the violence, this coercive campaign risks deepening South Sudan’s pervasive insecurity. Past attempts at civilian disarmament have repeatedly led to violent clashes between communities being disarmed and an abusive security sector, while geographically staged, incomplete disarmament efforts have often escalated intercommunal violence. Further, this approach does nothing to address the demand factors driving proliferation, leading communities to re-arm following the completion of disarmament exercises.

Given the threat from COVID-19, some African leaders have reacted to the pandemic by relying heavily on the tools of military and security infrastructure that are commonly perceived as most reliable when dealing with destabilizing threats to their national wellbeing. Unfortunately, this approach not only alienates the civilian population and further exacerbates the politicization of African militaries, but it also risks worsening the spread of the virus.

Despite the appearance of progress towards sustainable peace in South Sudan, the transitional security arrangements dictated by the R-ARCSS peace accord have produced the explosive potential for intensified insecurity. In adherence to the logic of the “payroll peace,” the parties to the R-ARCSS have subverted and defied the prescribed security sector reforms, leading to a renewed period of military recruitment, a hollowed-out process of force integration, and a stalled DDR program incapable of meeting combatants’ expectations. To avoid the return to major hostilities, further diplomatic engagement is needed to compel the parties to undertake these security sector reforms in good faith.

Sudan’s Darfur states have seen a renewed escalation of intercommunal violence in the months of May-July 2020, representing the conflict’s deadliest three-month period since June 2017. While this intensification of hostilities reflects a pattern of violence observed in recent years, the looming departure of the UNAMID peacekeeping mission has heightened concerns over the ongoing state of insecurity and Protection of Civilian needs in western Sudan.